SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 7 16:29:01 UTC 2012

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb  7 16:29:01 UTC 2012.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Feb 7 16:29:01 UTC 2012

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb  7 16:29:01 UTC 2012.

SPC Feb 7, 2012 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2012

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN OVER THE LWR 48 WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH
AMPLITUDE BLOCK OVER WRN CANADA...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS
ONCE AGAIN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE SEASONAL NORM ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL CANADA.  HOWEVER...SEVERAL SEMI-CONTINUOUS BANDS OF LESSER WLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH WED.  GIVEN DRY AND/OR
STABLE CONDITIONS PRESENT OVER MOST AREAS...ONLY THE BELT OF
ENHANCED FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC TOWARD BAJA CA AND NW
MEXICO...AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET PERSISTING FROM CNTRL MEXICO TO THE
S ATLANTIC CST...ARE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONUS TSTM
POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.

...SRN/CNTRL FL TODAY/THIS EVE...
SEASONABLY MOIST AIR...WITH PW AOA 1.25 INCHES...WILL PERSIST AHEAD
OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSING CNTRL FL TODAY/TNGT.  THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
REGION...DESPITE WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES.  WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT...AND ALONG INVERTED TROUGH /SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAY
INITIATE ISOLD AFTN STORMS.  HOWEVER...WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM SUSTENANCE AND STRENGTH.

...SRN CA CST TODAY/TNGT...
IN AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW APPROACHING BAJA
CA...SATELLITE SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ATTM
AMPLIFYING SEWD OFF THE SRN CA CST.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD DEEPEN INTO
A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO CST EARLY WED.  PRIND ARE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED AREAS OF DEEP ASCENT/LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MINIMIZING THE RISK FOR TSTMS ALONG
THE CST.

...DEEP S TX TNGT...
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES TNGT/EARLY WED AS SUBTROPICAL JET AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM FROM
BAJA TROUGH...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING WAA
ATOP S TX COOL DOME.  ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR
SVR WEATHER.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 02/07/2012


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SPC Feb 7, 2012 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2012

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS OVER SRN FL SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE PENINSULA AND MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
FURTHER REVEALS THAT CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS ACTING
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL THERMAL CONTRAST OVER THE REGION. A FEW TSTMS
APPEAR LIKELY AS SBCAPE CLIMBS TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J PER KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH GENERALLY WEAK/MOIST LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER
SHEAR...AN SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE.

...SRN CA...
A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS MAY APPROACH THE COAST OF SRN CA TODAY AS
DEEP OFFSHORE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW DIGGING
SOUTH TOWARD BAJA. ANY TSTMS WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION BANDS SHOULD
REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY WED. 

...S TX...
RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR SPREADS INTO FAR S TX THROUGH EARLY
WED. GIVEN LIKELY ELEVATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
THE PROSPECTS FOR ONLY VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERAL THUNDER
FCST HAS BEEN REMOVED IN THIS AREA.

..CARBIN.. 02/07/2012


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2012

VALID 071700Z - 081200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..GARNER.. 02/07/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
A CNTRL ROCKIES UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EWD...MOVING IN CONCERT WITH
A PRIMARY TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES SWWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SRN WAVE SHOULD REACH THE KY/TN
VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE PRIMARY WAVE IN THE NORTHEAST
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...AN AB/SK/MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL DEVELOP SWD AND EWD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE U.S. HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. FARTHER W...A TROUGH OFF THE CNTRL/SRN CA COAST WILL DRIFT
SWD...SETTLING OFF THE NRN BAJA CA COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER
WAVE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW IN
COMBINATION WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WIDELY SQUASH
FIRE POTENTIAL.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...


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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2012

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..GARNER.. 02/07/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0308 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN STATES...THOUGH A
KY/TN VALLEY UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY EJECT OFFSHORE...LEADING TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE CNTRL US TO MO/AR BORDER...WHILE A COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES SWD THROUGH FL. ALTHOUGH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
NOTED ACROSS NRN FL FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE...POSSIBLE RAINFALL ON TUE
AND MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY TEMPER THE THREAT.

OVER THE WEST...AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF NRN BAJA CA WILL DRIFT
SWD...WHILE A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST.
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS SRN CA
WED NIGHT INTO THU...REINFORCED BY STRONG NELY DEEP LAYER WINDS.
HOWEVER...GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUE...LIKELY WETTING FINER FUELS AND REDUCING FIRE
POTENTIAL...DESPITE AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL SET UP.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...


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